Featuring Colin Hecht & Trevor Utley
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Featuring Colin Hecht & Trevor Utley
Featuring Colin Hecht, Greg Quattrochi, & Trevor Utley
By Trevor Utley I know what you are thinking, "How are the Milwaukee Brewers this low?" That or "Did I read the train schedule right? It was supposed to be here twenty minutes ago. Did I miss it? Am I on the right platform? My shoes are tied right?" Milwaukee was in first place in the NL Central division for nearly two-thirds of the season in 2014. How the hell did they end up in third place, eight games out of the division and six games out of the second Wild Card spot? A lack of depth was their doom. They only exacerbated the problem this offseason and I feel keeping them in the same position as I had them last year is just. Teams that collapse the way the Milwaukee did last year don't just rebound smelling like roses. Just ask the 2007-08 Mets and the 2011 Red Sox what happened the following years. As you'll see in the coming days, I think it is going to take at least a year for both the Brewers AND the Oakland A's to get last year's stink off of themselves. As I stated in the opening, the Brewers downfall in 2014 was primarily triggered by a lack of depth. When their big names had to play through injuries because there were no suitable replacements, they dropped like an anvil on Wile E. Coyote's head. The one change they made to their lineup this winter was replacing Lyle Overbay at first base with Adam Lind. Lind's presence in the batter's box hasn't dwindled, when healthy. If his current pattern of one year hurt, one year healthy continues; 2015 should see him stay on the field. The field however is where he is quite a problem. In the American League, Toronto could use him at DH when he was having a particularly rough go of it at first base. Milwaukee will have no such luxury and it could get real ugly on the right side of the infield, real quick. At second base, Scooter Gennett didn't have to do much to usurp the now departed Rickie Weeks for the position. Once second was all his though, complacency seemed to set in on the 24 year old and the hustle and grit he displayed as a rookie all but faded away. With no real competition again coming out of spring, Gennett is going to have to rekindle that fire inside to show GM Doug Melvin that he is part of the team's future. (Side note: Doug Melvin and manager Ron Roenicke both survived last year's meltdown.) At shortstop, the enigma known as Jean Segura still remains. Segura burst onto the scene in 2013 garnering an All-Star nod and league-wide praise. Since that Mid-Summer Classic, praise wouldn't be the word I'd use to describe what most are saying about the 25 year old Dominican. His second half swoon from two years past carried over into 2014 and then some. He hit just .246 and the speed (stolen bases down from 44 to 20) and power (home runs down from 12 to 5) he showed early on are all but evaporated. As with Gennett, there is no real viable threat to his position this year. Top prospect Orlando Arcia may challenge him in the future but he is at a minimum a year away from the Majors. Third base is still in the hands of Aramis Ramirez. He is in the final year of his contract and his ability to drive the ball continues to dwindle. BUT, and stop me if you've heard this before, there is NOBODY TO CHALLENGE HIM AT THIRD BASE. He only made the All-Star team last season because he was voted to start and I don't expect there to be a sudden uptick in production from him this year. However, I am saving the best of the Brewers' infield for last. That would of course be catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Lucroy finished fourth in the NL MVP balloting a season ago and like Ramirez was voted to start in the All-Star Game. His inclusion was quite warranted though. Lucroy was able to get himself into the lineup more with a few shifts at first base and flourished. He led the Majors in doubles and had an on base percentage of .373. Lucroy is cheap, productive, and versatile. Milwaukee would be smart to lock him up or risk losing him in two years. On paper, the Brewers' outfield should be one of the best in the National League. Carlos Gomez is in his prime as he continues to maintain power (20+ HR two straight years), speed (30+ SB two straight years), and Gold Glove defense. The bad news is that he is a free agent after 2016. If what they did with Yovani Gallardo is any indication of their strategy for the future, I think Gomez will be traded before he ever gets to free agency. One contract they're stuck with is that of Ryan Braun. Now that the Biogenesis mess is behind him, Braun has developed a new wart on himself. A troublesome thumb that he tried to play through resulted in the lowest full season offensive output of his career. He says he is 100% healthy in Spring Training but still looks to be shaking off some of the rust. If I was a Brewers' fan, I'd be downright terrified of that thumb becoming a recurring hindrance for a player that is locked up until at least 2020. The last spot in the outfield still belongs to Khris Davis. No longer a prospect, he'll be 27 in 2015, Davis needs to show more than power (22 homers in '14) to keep his place in the lineup. He strikes out a ton and walks never. Add that to the below average defense he provides in left field and his pop may not be able to make him an every day entrant on the lineup card. I say that because outfield is the one place where Milwaukee has some depth. Take that as you will since their "depth" is just one guy that can play all three outfield spots. That man is Gerardo Parra. Parra was a puzzling acquisition at the trade deadline last year as the Brewers' needs at the time were everything BUT outfield. Compound that with the fact that they dealt two of the their top ten prospects for a fourth outfielder making over $6 million this year and you may just send your resume to Miller Park announcing your just as unqualified candidacy for the GM position. Add on the fact that Parra is a free agent after this year and you might as well use the Men In Black Neuralyzer on yourself and forget the sport of baseball exists. If you think I was critical of the lineup, you are going to charge me with a hate crime when it comes to the pitching. The starting staff has no real "ace" to speak of but will either trot out Kyle Lohse or Matt Garza in the role for 2015. Lohse has been the model of consistency since 2011 and should win at least 12-15 games this year. The flip side is that he is a free agent and will turn 37 in October. That means he will either retire or leave Milwaukee for one last big pay day that they surely will not grant him. I only say that because they traded former ace Yovani Gallardo for peanuts to get out from his impending free agency. As for Garza, he is a steady hand for a rotation that is going to get very young in the coming years. He is never really dominant but is also never completely appalling. I guess that is what $50 million buys you these days, as that is the amount owed to Garza over the next four years. This is the point where my Haterade comes out in full effect because a lot of people really like the rest of the Brewers' rotation. Wily Peralta, Mike Fiers, and Jimmy Nelson are slated to be those final three pitchers as of today. Peralta won 17 games last year and nearly pitched 200 innings. With that being said, he is a pitcher who pitches to contact who gives up a lot of hits and home runs. It takes just one bad stretch for those two attributes to really pig pile on a young player. With the Central Division improving around them, I wouldn't be surprised if Peralta gave up 30 homers this year making it two straight years a Brewers pitcher led in that category (Marco Estrada did last year). As for Nelson, the high regard for him within the Brewers' organization is more of a symbol of their dearth of pitching talent than it is to his actual ability. In his first extended look in the Majors in 2014, Nelson got shellacked. His stuff isn't great and while he doesn't walk many, he throws way too many pitches down the heart of the plate. I expect him back in either the Minors or the bullpen by season's end. The last pitcher is Mike Fiers. I saved the best of the three for last. I also saved the most brittle. When you type Mike Fiers' name into Google the first thing that pops up under his name is "Mike Fiers Injury." The guy cannot stay healthy. Freak injuries to random ailments seem to haunt this guy each season and he isn't getting any younger. You'll get just as many trips to the disabled list as you get quality starts from Mike Fiers this year. The bullpen was one of the main reasons the Brewers crashed and burned in 2014. How did they remedy this glaring deficiency? Overpaying Neal Cotts for one year. He was brought in to replace Zach Duke, who went to Chicago, Milwaukee's only competent left hander out of the pen. Outside of two good years nearly a decade apart, Cotts' ERA sits in the 5.00 range. Not quite the savior the Brew Crew were hoping for. But the Brewers have plenty of former closers to choose from if Francisco Rodriguez falls on hard times. K-Rod has had a bit of an up and down career in Milwaukee but he had 44 saves in 2014, his highest output since he set the Major League record with 62 in 2008. Jonathan Broxton and Jim Henderson both have closing experience but if either claim the role at any point in 2015, the season will be going much worse than even I expected. The Brewers have plenty of upside and may provide their fans with some fireworks with a lot of home runs. Just know that the opposing fans are going to get just as much joy watching their team launch dingers off the Brewers' sub-par staff and bullpen. You won't have to worry about a collapse this year Milwaukee faithful, you are going to stink throughout. LAST YEAR'S RANKING: #25 (NO CHANGE) PREDICTED RECORD: 73-89 PREDICTED ALL-STAR REPS: Jonathan Lucroy (catcher), Carlos Gomez (outfielder) Trevor Utley enjoyed Milwaukee when he went there and experienced one of the more surreal moments in his life when every girl (and he means EVERY girl) in a Marquette bar combined to sing Madonna's "Like A Prayer" only to return to normalcy as if nothing happened as soon as the song ended. Image Credit: Brewers logo (sportslogos.net)
Featuring Trevor Utley, Lou Kessler, and Al deCiutiis
By Trevor Utley The MLB Trade Deadline came and went at 4 PM yesterday and while waiver based deals can still be worked out in August, the last major deals for first place teams and the clubs chasing them have come and gone. Only time will tell if these deals bear fruit for the teams that made them, but in the interim let us review the deals of today and yesterday and hash out the winners and losers of baseball's most hectic afternoon. Firstly, let us set aside the deals that don't really need to be graded out. These are the transactions that don't have much bearing on pennant races or involve lower caliber pieces. These trades include:
This could be a reclamation project for a player Cubs' GM Theo Epstein knows very well. Look what the North Siders did with Jake Arrieta so far this season.
Denorfia becomes part of a Mariners' outfield desperate for a spark. San Diego doesn't get much back in the two prospects, even though Almonte was the Opening Day centerfielder for the M's, but the Padres can be happy to part ways with Denorfia's over $2 million salary for what amounted to a platoon guy against lefties only.
The Braves got better with Bonifacio who, while quite fragile, can play all over the field outside of being part of the battery and Russell who absolutely dominates left handed hitters. Caratini was a second round pick a year ago who is still transitioning from the infield to catching but has a bat that could pay dividends.
The A's outfield is beat up right now and will make use of a player like Fuld whom they actually waived earlier this season. He will get some decent run right now with Cespedes gone and Coco Crisp ailing but when the main cogs come back he'll be a fourth or fifth outfielder. Milone regressed from last year but should still be a part of the Twins' rotation going forward.
Miller is a free agent this offseason and Boston didn't want to let him walk for free. The left hander was traded in the division but netted the defending World Series champions a prized piece of the Orioles' farm system. 21 year old southpaw Rodriguez hasn't been exactly setting the world on fire at Double-A Bowie but was ranked as Baltimore's #3 prospect in 2013.
If you listened to our podcast we addressed Milwaukee's glaring hole, their bullpen, and even had Haniger involved in a deal for an arm. Milwaukee brass seemed to have a different plan in acquiring Gerardo Parra and inserting him into a crowded outfield. Haniger and Banda aren't world beaters. This was a weird trade for both sides as neither team really got better.
There is a big batch of young talent being swapped in this one. The Marlins got the major league ready talent from Houston while Houston will have to wait a while on their haul. Cosart should slot in behind Jose Fernandez in Miami's rotation for the future while Hernandez is playing beyond expectations currently. A whole lot of maybes going to the Lone Star State. With those minor deals out of the way let us delve into the ones that will have varying impacts on who makes the postseason in both leagues. From two aces being dealt to some head scratchers from the Bronx Bombers, this was easily one of the more active and interesting trade deadlines in recent memory. ATHLETICS GET JON LESTER, JONNY GOMES, & CASH RED SOX GET YOENIS CESPEDES & A COMPETITIVE BALANCE DRAFT PICK The A's, which seemed to be many a reporter's mystery team in the Jon Lester sweepstakes, swooped in seemingly at the last minute for the highly coveted lefty. The move improves Oakland's greatest strength and widens the gap between them and the Angels in the AL West. Jonny Gomes takes his talents to the Bay Area as well and should get a good amount of bats against left handers, he is currently second in the league in average against southpaws, in a banged up A's outfield. The Red Sox, the busiest team on Deadline Day, gets back a player in Cespedes that has a swing tailored for Fenway Park and an arm that could throw a laser to the plate even from the fabled triangle in Boston's centerfield. Boston may be in a similar situation to the Lester one next year with Cespedes though. A free agent at the end of 2015, the Cuban could ask away if the Red Sox don't improve. The argument for this trade on Boston's end is that they get a big bat in the two time former HR Derby Champion and a chance to chase Lester this offseason since it is almost a foregone conclusion that the small market A's will not pay the sticker price on Lester. If they end up whiffing on him and then Cespedes walks away next fall, this deal will be frowned upon by Red Sox Nation. If they rebound (not even necessarily resigning Lester in the process) and convince Cespedes to stay, the Red Sox made the best out of a bad situation. For Oakland, they show they are all in this year and it is World Series or bust. Lester paired with recent acquisitions Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel as well as Scott Kazmir, Jesse Chavez, and Sonny Gray make a team nobody wants to face come October. They may just not all be in Oakland green and yellow in 2015. But trust me that Oakland will just find new shiny toys to play with. OAKLAND GRADE: A+ BOSTON GRADE: B TIGERS GET DAVID PRICE RAYS GET DREW SMYLY, WILLY ADAMES, & NICK FRANKLIN MARINERS GET AUSTIN JACKSON After all the trades that Tampa were rumored to have turned down for their ace, it seems they panicked in trading him to the Tigers. Detroit gets a left hander to put between Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in their rotation and frankly didn't give up that much to do so. They kept young infielder Nick Castellanos in town and the only pitcher they lost in the deal was Drew Smyly who has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen with no real consistency. It keeps Detroit on pace with Oakland for the top seed in the American League Playoffs and keeps their rotation strong if Scherzer departs in free agency. Seattle acted as a third wheel in this deal and came out smelling like roses. Jackson is still only 27 and improves a Seattle outfield devoid of offensive and defensive talent. They gave up Nick Franklin who though he was seen by some as one of the Mariners of tomorrow, only hit .128 for the M's thus far in 2014. Tampa Bay was not in the situation with Price that Boston was in with Lester. They had another year to go with their all-world left hander and instead of holding onto him for a run at the second AL Wild Card dealt him and got the proverbial pu-pu platter return. Smyly will be in the rotation for the remainder of 2014 but his role will probably end up being the same back and forth one it was in Motown. Adames is one of the more highly touted prospects in Detroit's weak hitting minor league system but he is only 18 and is light years away. It will be interesting to see if the struggling Franklin gets a chance to play everyday at the Trop. The Rays have shown they didn't even want to pay the potential arbitration figure for Price in 2015. A team that has flying high lately has just been shot out of the sky. The team with the most to give got the least in return. I am still trying to wrap my head around this deal on Tampa's end. Detroit solidifies themselves as an American League power and Seattle gets a competent outfielder for seemingly nothing. If I write any more about this trade my brain is going to explode. DETROIT GRADE: A- SEATTLE GRADE: A+ TAMPA BAY GRADE: F CARDINALS GET JOHN LACKEY & COREY LITTRELL RED SOX GET ALLEN CRAIG & JOE KELLY Boston is making no bones about blowing up their team. It seemed everbody outside of Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz were on the block. After Jon Lester, John Lackey was the second domino to fall. The right hander had rebuilt his image in Boston after injuries and the "Chicken and Beer" nonsense faded, making him one of their most coveted assets. His $500,000 salary for next year doesn't hurt either. St. Louis has been chasing Milwaukee for the Central Division crown for the majority of 2014 and the acquisition of Lackey (along with Justin Masterson that we'll get to next) restocks the pitching shelves that were getting pretty bare for the Cards. Lackey will probably sit in the third starter role behind Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, a daunting opponent for the third game of any potential postseason series. Corey Littrell is basically a throw in for this deal and I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last time I ever write his name again. Boston doesn't necessarily get taken to the cleaners on this deal though. Allen Craig is only a couple seasons removed from being one of the most feared late game hitters in all of baseball. He was more than clutch in St. Louis' World Series triumph in 2011. If he can return from his injuries, which Boston will surely allow him too, they may have gotten themselves another late inning hero to pair with Big Papi. In Joe Kelly they get a pitcher who can start or relieve, and though he won't wow you with his numbers eats innings and gets outs. While Tampa seemed to force their own hand with the Price trade, Boston so far has made teams work hard for their arms instead of the inverse. This trade helps both teams now and in 2015 and both GMs should give themselves a good old Barry Horowitz pat on the back for making it. ST. LOUIS GRADE: B BOSTON GRADE: A- CARDINALS GET JUSTIN MASTERSON INDIANS GET JAMES RAMSEY This trade was consummated yesterday but it is still significant in St. Louis' charge to the Central Division title. They know all to well that you can never have too much starting pitching heading into the postseason, especially in the National League. In acquiring Masterson, they've added depth to a battle tested rotation whilst not giving up a high level prospect in doing so. The Cardinals will go as far as their starting pitching will take them. Each of their runs to the World Series in the past decade have been on the backbone of their staff. The former Cleveland right hander may not be in the rotation come the postseason but has experience coming out of the pen from early years in Boston which is valuable to St. Louis. James Ramsey, a 24 year old outfielder who has spent his season at AA for Springfield, is a prospect who may be in Cleveland by the end of this season or Opening Day 2015. He has hit .300 for St. Louis' second tier team and has shown decent pop the past two seasons. It isn't a haul for the Tribe but it isn't a complete swing and miss. After a run to the Wild Card game last year, Cleveland went backwards. They did right by their Opening Day starter and got a player in Ramsey that will be able to contribute sooner rather than a normal prospect in one of these types of trades would. St. Louis has a completely right handed rotation but one that is very flexible and experienced in postseason play. ST. LOUIS GRADE: A- CLEVELAND GRADE: B NATIONALS GET ASDRUBAL CABRERA INDIANS GET ZACH WALTERS I thought the Nationals would address the hole in their lineup left by Ryan Zimmerman's absence but thought it would be a third baseman instead of another shortstop. They did just that though as they shipped out promising middle infielder Zach Walters for Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera. He will get a trial by fire at second base for the first place Nationals with Ian Desmond entrenched at short. Washington is loaded with pitching so if they were going to make a move it was definitely going to be for a bat. Adrian Beltre and Martin Prado (who eventually landed in New York) were discussed but they eventually settled for the former All-Star Cabrera. Cabrera will be asked to man second base for Washington, a position he hasn't played since 2009. The former Indian will most likely leave in free agency but he'll provide some steadiness in the infield until Zimmerman returns from his latest ailment. The Indians are just waiting for Francisco Lindor to be ready. The uber talented shortstop down on the farm for Cleveland isn't there yet and Walters could plug the gap between Cabrera's exit and Lindor's arrival. He played in 32 games for Washington this year but only garnered 39 at-bats in those appearances. He will probably never hit for average but has 20+ home run potential at either shortstop or second base which is enticing. When two teams help each other on a deal you can't knock it. Cabrera gets to chase the postseason for a second straight year while Walters is a stopgap to Lindor or a much cheaper option if Jason Kipnis slips further after signing his new contract. WASHINGTON GRADE: B+ CLEVELAND GRADE: B- NEW YORK GETS STEPHEN DREW & MARTIN PRADO ARIZONA GETS PETER O'BRIEN BOSTON GETS KELLY JOHNSON This one was actually two separate trades but I combined them for the sake of time. Drew and Johnson swapped colors in the first non-waiver deal between the Red Sox and Yankees since Mike Stanley was dealt for Tony Armas Jr. Martin Prado comes over from Arizona for Peter O'Brien, a power hitting catcher who had spent his entire 2014 at AA. From just a personnel standpoint, neither of these two trades make much sense for the Yankees. Drew is going to play out of position at second base for the Bombers after Brian Roberts was designated for assignment. Prado has more positional flexibility but seems to be of no more use to the Yankees than a $11 million a year utility guy. Don't get me wrong, they gave up nothing of immediate value to acquire these two but they were two deals that just seem to have been made for making a deal's sake. In Boston, Xander Bogaerts now shuffles back to shortstop a move that may exacerbate his fielding woes. The young Aruban started off 2014 at short but then moved to third with Will Middlebrooks' injury and the resigning of Drew. Bogaerts going back to shortstop leaves third base for Brock Holt, which is his natural position. Johnson can play both in the infield and outfield and will surely get plenty of AB's spelling various Sox hitters down the stretch. Arizona gets out from under a big contract in Prado for a guy in O'Brien who could potentially replace Miguel Montero if Arizona chooses to rid themselves of his big deal. Overall, the Yankees got two expensive players with no real place to put them. Though like I said before they didn't lose out on a top prospect or high level Major Leaguer to do so, but if they were going to address anything at the deadline it should have been pitching. NEW YORK GRADE: C- ARIZONA GRADE: C BOSTON GRADE: B- Trevor Utley is sad the Dodgers whiffed in their pursuit of both available aces but LA kinda has some good arms already so he thinks he'll live. Image Credits: Let's Make A Deal (2guystalkingmetsbaseball.com); Lester, Gomes, Cespedes, Price, Lackey, Craig, Kelly, Masterson, Cabrera (espn.com); Adames, Ramsey, Walters, O'Brien (milb.com); Smyly, Franklin, Jackson, Drew, Prado, Johnson (mlb.com) Featuring Trevor Utley, Andrew Sanford, & Lou Kessler By Trevor Utley It has been a rough go of it for Milwaukee since the fiasco surrounding Ryan Braun came to a head. The Brew Crew were division champs in 2011 but since then have seen their stars leave or dimmed. Doug Melvin has fought admirably with a new crop of talent but in the ubercompetitive NL Central, a lack of depth will do you in. Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks continued their declines in 2013 with no suitable replacements in sight. Jean Segura was an All-Star in 2013 but he faded down the stretch, understandably after managing over 100 games in the Minors just twice. Carlos Gomez finally reached his potential last season and will get the chance to repeat that while being flanked in the outfield by the enigmatic Braun and a burgeoning slugger in Khris Davis, not to be confused with Orioles first baseman Chris Davis, who hit 11 home runs during a September call-up. The starting staff is again spearheaded by Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse but is quite unproven after that and has no left handers to speak of. Top prospect Jimmy Nelson may help out a bullpen in flux this season but will surely be a rotation staple going forward. As with any team this far down the rankings, one always looks to the possible success in the future. Until then, the Brewers will try to bridge the transitional gap in one of the toughest divisions in the game. PREDICTED RECORD: 71-91 PREDICTED ALL-STAR REPS: Ryan Braun, outfielder; Carlos Gomez, outfielder Image Credit: Brewers logo (sportslogos.net) |
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