1. CINCINNATI- Joe Burrow, QB (LSU)
It would have to take a Ricky Williams in 1999 pick haul to get the Bengals to turn their back on a quarterback that could pilot their franchise for the next decade. Only Miami could potentially present such an offer, and even if they were to do so they are more than likely taking the Heisman winner at #1 as well.
Naysayers will say that Burrow was just a one-year wonder down on the Bayou but what a fucking year that was. 5671 yards, 60 TD/6 INT, 76.3% completion percentage, 202.0 Rating. Those numbers are staggering but if you do a deeper dive and see how much of that production came in big games than you shouldn't be surprised this is the easiest slam dunk pick of the night.
2, WASHINGTON- Chase Young, DE (Ohio State)
Once the formality of the Bengals selection, the Skins should be slamming the hand raise, high-five, or whatever that Zoom emoji is with pick number two. There are weaknesses on both sides of the ball in the nation’s capital but Young is a talent that it would be negligent to pass up on here.
The Buckeye dominated to the tune of 16.5 sacks and 6 forced fumbles while missing two games and is touted by Pro Football Focus as the best edge-rushing prospect they’ve ever scouted since their data collection began in 2004. Don’t get cute here.
3. DETROIT- Jeff Okudah, CB (Ohio State)
We didn’t take long before we got to our first pick that is more than 50/50 to be traded come Thursday evening.
The Lions traded Darius Slay to Philadelphia earlier in the year so taking the shutdown corner in Okudah makes perfect sense for a Lions team that wants to become better defensively with Matt Patricia at the helm. I just think Detroit believes they can get the unanimous All-American at a lower pick and play on the panic of teams chasing that second quarterback off the board. I believe he’ll be a Lion whether it be at 3, 5, or 6.
4. NY GIANTS- Tristan Wirfs, OT (Iowa)
The Daniel Jones era for the G-Men had its ups and downs in his rookie season, so it should be a priority for Dave Gettleman to get somebody to keep Danny Dimes upright in his sophomore season.
Wirfs is a tackle that has made waves ever since he was the first true freshman to start at the position in Kirk Ferentz’s seemingly endless tenure at the University of Iowa. He set the pace in the 40-yard dash at the combine and broke event records for both jumps (long & broad). His athleticism will allow the Giants to be more creative with their play-calling and put Jones into space where he can be more dangerous both off of play-action and as a runner.
5. MIAMI- Tua Tagovailoa, QB (Alabama)
Miami is the true wild card of the top five of this draft. With the amount of draft capital they possess and the sheer number of holes they have scattered throughout a bare-bones roster, to say with any semblance of certainty what the Dolphins will do on the first night is not a winner’s proposition.
With all that being said, I think Miami’s top priority in the 2020 Draft is getting a quarterback. It has been a position that has been a nadir of their roster construction since Dan Marino’s departure. Since I don’t think Miami can afford to go all-in on a trade with Cincinnati at 1, it will come down to a choice between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. If Miami is committed to taking a run at the Tom Brady-less AFC East for some reason this year, they will probably give in to the Herbert pressure. But personally I believe going into the tank and stacking more draft assets next season and putting those weapons around a dynamic playmaker like Tua is the move that would be much more beneficial to a franchise in need of a complete makeover.
6. LA CHARGERS- Justin Herbert, QB (Oregon)
With Phil Rivers taking his talents to Indianapolis, Los Angeles will be looking to get the ball rolling on finding their next stalwart under center. The Chargers don’t have the chips to get in Burrow territory as Miami does, but they could still get ahead of the Dolphins if they truly feel stronger about one of the duo of QBs.
For the sake of this mock, I say that Herbert is the one that is there for the taking. The MVP of both the Rose and Senior Bowls is not a bad bronze medal by any stretch of the imagination but isn’t the needle mover that the two SEC products will be. Reports have been made that he is the highest graded QB on a number of GM’s boards which means that the Chargers may have their hands forced to move up to prevent another team from getting into the mix from underneath them, not just Miami.
7. CAROLINA- Derrick Brown, DT (Auburn)
The Panthers have done plenty to ensure that they will be OK on offense in the post-Cam Newton era yet are still a very flawed defensive unit.
Despite getting to the quarterback the second most times in the league in 2019, the Panthers were cut up on the ground by even the weakest of running attacks. They need a disruptor up the middle that can also force teams to think against consistently running the ball. Derrick Brown is that man and he showed that on the biggest stages numerous times including Auburn’s upset of Alabama this past season. Carolina could take even more chances with their quarterback pressure knowing that Brown can cover so many holes on the line and so many mistakes by teammates.
8. ARIZONA- Isaiah Simmons, LB (Clemson)
The Cardinals were the worst defense in the league last year. They’ve already added two linebackers through free agency but that should not deter themselves from continuing to bolster that position with this pick.
Simmons was a force in Clemson’s most important games this year and had a key interception in the Tigers’ playoff victory against Ohio State. He’s a sideline to sideline guy that can cover for the glaring deficiencies in Arizona’s second and third levels of defense. Even as a casual observer you can point out double-digit times in every game in which he was impactful.
9. JACKSONVILLE- Jedrick Wills, OT (Alabama)
After jettisoning Nick Foles this offseason, it seems that at least for the meantime the Jaguars are committed to keeping Gardner Minshew as their signal-caller. Whether that is prudent is up for debate, but they’ve made that call for the time being and now need to bolster the protection for their quarterback.
Wills just didn’t get beat at Alabama and while things may be a bit tougher with a Jacksonville line that let up 42 sacks last year he has the ability to come in and take a chunk out of that number immediately. He may start off on the right side in his early years but could easily transition to the left or fill in there if warranted as a rookie.
10. CLEVELAND- Andrew Thomas, OT (Georgia)
Just when you think the Browns are ready to turn that corner they zag the other way and make you scratch your head as to what the fuck just happened. They are committed to Baker Mayfield as their franchise cornerstone and if they want to keep him in one piece should spend this pick on their first first-round offensive lineman since Joe Thomas in 2007.
Depending on what expert you put your trust in, the order of the three top-10 tackles in this draft could realistically go in any order. Like Wills, Thomas would more than likely begin his NFL career as a right tackle before eventually becoming a pillar on the left. It would have been nice to see him prove himself on the Sugar Bowl platform but you can understand his reasoning for sitting the game out as an injury more than likely would have spiraled him out of this conversation.
11. NY JETS- Jerry Jeudy, WR (Alabama)
I’d be lying to you if I told you I was confident that this will be the name that Roger Goodell reads when the Jets come to the “podium” on Thursday night. There isn’t an organization that finds new ways to shoot themselves in their feet than Gang Green and the pick that makes the most sense isn’t always the one that gets made.
Now each of the wide receivers that are going to go in this range has their own strengths and weaknesses. However, I think that Jeudy is the best target man of them and that more than anything is what Sam Darnold needs to maintain some level of consistency. Now if the rumors are true that Jeudy’s camp is holding out on a knee injury, he could easily tumble out of this spot but if it isn’t him New York should immediately pivot to Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb or Jeudy’s Bama teammate Henry Ruggs III.
12. LAS VEGAS- CeeDee Lamb, WR (Oklahoma)
Thus begins the first “position run” of the 2020 NFL Draft. The Jets may screw up my prognostication but I would be even more surprised if the freshly moved Raiders don’t take a wideout.
While the pair of Alabama WRs are good at their respective strengths, Oklahoma’s Lamb is the proper meshing of route runner and home run hitter. Jon Gruden will love to have a player that he can play on the outside and run all over the place. He should also be the last chance saloon marker in my opinion as to whether or not Derek Carr should be the team’s quarterback
13. SAN FRANCISCO (FROM INDIANAPOLIS)- Henry Ruggs III, WR (Alabama)
This mock’s run on wide receivers comes to an end with the pick that the Super Bowl runners-up got from the DeForest Buckner trade with the Colts.
There had to be a large number of teams that started to plot their trade strategies for draft night after seeing San Francisco swing a deal with the Colts. The defending NFC Champions were surely going to take a wide receiver with their own pick (31) but now can get a significantly better one in the lottery. Ruggs is the best deep threat of the three pass catchers that have gone so far but has shown he can shrink against tough matchups sometimes. The rich get richer here.
14. TAMPA BAY- Mekhi Becton, OT (Louisville)
Once you get out of the top ten the pickings get slim in terms of top-class protection. The Bucs didn’t bring in Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to aim for the middle of the road so it would almost be malfeasance for them to do anything but go with a tackle with their pick.
Becton is a real wild card here. He has a rumored drug test failure looming and if you go through a handful of Youtube videos can see where he can take more than just a few plays off at the most inopportune of times. But in terms of the proverbial tale of the tape, the Louisville product is a physical specimen that moves like a tight end and hits defenders like a fucking avalanche. If you can Brady to light a fire under his ass at an early age, this guy may be the steal of this draft so far.
15. DENVER- Javon Kinlaw, DT (South Carolina)
Denver is going to be heartbroken to see the best three wide receivers gone by the time they are called upon and outside of Detroit moving down, Denver moving up may be the most confident I am of a draft-day move. But in terms of this mock let’s tackle what the Broncos would do if they didn’t deal.
Javon Kinlaw is the best available defensive player left at this point. The Gamecock DT was a first-team All-American and was a rock for his side in their upset over then-#3 Georgia this season. They re-signed Shelby Harris and traded for Jurell Casey last month, but Kinlaw could easily displace either of them by season’s end in the starting front.
16. ATLANTA- C.J. Henderson, CB (Florida)
While they live entirely in the NFL’s mid-card if there was going to be a team that I expect to completely fill their pants five times over with a virtual draft it would be the Atlanta 28-3s.
The Falcons need defense. The top two defensive tackles are gone. The run of non-Jeff Okudah cornerbacks is potentially on the horizon. Taking a cornerback that you got to see lock up the best the SEC had to offer in your backyard over and over is staying ahead of the curve. If you can’t trade up and get Kinlaw or Brown just make this pick and don’t hurt yourself any further.
17. DALLAS- Kristian Fulton, CB (LSU)
The Cowboys have a bevy of financial decisions to make over the next season and change. One of those first casualties was CB Byron Jones who got $54.5 million guaranteed from the Dolphins. This pick could mend that wound for long enough to sort out all those other contract issues.
Fulton was a man about town in the National Title Game against Clemson keeping Tee Higgins in check. He made six solo tackles and lined up in every conceivable cornerback spot to keep Trevor Lawrence and his weapons off balance. If it isn’t Fulton in this spot I expect Dallas to take one of the other fast-rising defensive backs in A.J. Terrell, Trevon Diggs, or Jaylon Johnson.
18. MIAMI (FROM PITTSBURGH)- Josh Jones, OT (Houston)
I have the Dolphins taking their quarterback of the future with their earlier first-rounder. Now I have the man whose charge will be to keep that man on his feet for the next ten seasons.
Not gonna lie. I’ve never seen Josh Jones play live. Not this year, not any year. From what I read though, Jones is the next best OT on the board and should be coveted by teams in this range of the draft. If Miami doesn’t move up with either this or pick 26 as a secondary carrot, boosting their pass protection is paramount having being tied for the most sacks allowed in football in 2019.
19. LAS VEGAS (FROM CHICAGO)- K’Lavon Chaisson, LB (LSU)
With the 2020 first-round pick they received in the Khalil Mack trade, the Raiders finally select somebody who could potentially fill the massive void left on their linebacking corps.
Chaisson is still not a finished product coming out of LSU. Nevertheless, he has made more than the best with his athleticism. He can get to the quarterback from an array of different attack points and watching him in the snuff film that was the Oklahoma game puts him just that little tick ahead of his more polished linebacking counterpart on the draft board.
20. JACKSONVILLE (FROM LA RAMS)- Jaylon Johnson, CB (Utah)
There have only been two changes to my mock draft since I initially drew it up. This was one of them to factor in a player that is absolutely rocketing up expert mocks across the internet.
The Jaguars traded a cornerback with a homophonic first name this season to get this pick from the Rams and make their second first-round pick their shot at replacing him. I didn’t get much Utah viewing on my plate this past season but many feel that Jaylon Johnson is the second most polished CB available and could end up even higher than this. I would not be surprised though if Jacksonville traded this pick and preyed upon teams looking to get back in the first round for a quarterback or edge rusher.
21. PHILADELPHIA- Denzel Mims, WR (Baylor)
We’ve already had one run on wide receivers thus far but in the words of Sam Jackson in Jurassic Park “Hold on to your butts”.
Mims is a player that could easily be pigeonholed as the product of a system down at Baylor but I believe he is so much better than that. He showed his physical tools with a strong combine and had four multiple touchdown games over the course of 2019. If there is a coach that could make the most of Mims’ skills I think it would be Doug Pederson who got to the playoffs last season with a wide receiver corps that was one of the least productive in the sport.
22. MINNESOTA (FROM BUFFALO)- Tee Higgins, WR (Clemson)
With the pick the Vikings received from trading Stefon Diggs, they take another ACC product with upside.
Higgins was utilized by Dabo Swinney in a variety of ways and excelled at all of them. The only reason I could fathom for such a versatile player sliding this far is his perceived injury proneness and his lack of presence in his CFP matchups over the past two seasons. He can do everything adeptly but will that skill be able to mask his speed deficit against more skilled secondaries? I think Minnesota can take the risk of finding out this late in the first round.
23. NEW ENGLAND- Justin Jefferson, WR (LSU)
Now hear me out. I, just like all of you people reading this, have no fucking clue what the New England Patriots are going to do with this pick. Bill Belichick will be even more clandestine this year with all of the hubbub surrounding his franchise.
My reasoning for the Jefferson pick is a pure-play on Belichick’s ego. The age-old argument as to who made who between him and Tom Brady comes to a head in 2020. Can Brady win without the Patriots system and/or can Belichick plug in anybody to said system and still win the division? My hunch with no basis whatsoever is that The Hoodie thinks he was the bride, not the bridesmaid, of the relationship and will look to give whoever is under center (Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer, Drafted QB?) Joe Burrow’s favorite weapon in the Bayou.
24. NEW ORLEANS- Jordan Love, QB (Utah State)
Drew Brees is back for at least two more seasons, but with arguably the strongest roster in the NFL the Saints can look to getting the heir to the throne, even if it means burning a first-round pick.
After the “big three” I find it hard to get excited about a quarterback prospect in the first two rounds. Jordan Love seems to be the one that scouts feel is the safest bet after that drop-off but my god did his work slip between his sophomore and junior seasons. He threw the most interceptions in FBS this past season and had three games with three picks including potential showcase efforts against BYU and LSU. It seems to me like a guy that could be had later on but if Sean Payton has proven anything over his coaching career he doesn’t like to fuck around with “he could be available later.”
25. MINNESOTA- Trevon Diggs, CB (Alabama)
Well, this is awkward.
They may have just traded his brother but the addition of Trevon Diggs is more to address the fact that three corners have walked out the door and as of now zero have walked back in. Diggs was the Tide’s standout defender in their loss to LSU and while he like many of his teammates sat out their bowl game has a good enough tape resume to still hold his place in the first round in my opinion. It wouldn’t be ideal for him to be CB1 in his rookie season so I think the club will still need to do work there and fast.
26. MIAMI (FROM HOUSTON)- A.J. Terrell, CB (Clemson)
Now the chances of Miami making all three picks in the first round is pretty slim but to be honest it shouldn’t be that radical of a stretch to make for a team that botched tankamania in 2019.
The pick they got at from the Steelers for Minkah Fitzpatrick got them an offensive lineman. It should so poetic that the pick they receive from Houston for Laremy Tunsil nets them a key secondary piece. A.J. Terrell is still on an upward trajectory with his development as a cornerback but has the body to be one of the better defensive players in Miami with the right coaching. Whether that will occur remains to be seen but I think getting a guy that could easily go in the mid-teens at 26 is as good a value as the Dolphins could ask for with their third pick.
27. SEATTLE- A.J. Epenesa, DE (Iowa)
Seeing Jadaveon Clowney leave probably was something the Seahawks were prepared for as the bottom of the first round has many defensive ends that can produce right away.
From what I’ve read the reason scouts have soured a bit on the Holiday Bowl MVP is his lack of burst off the line. That may be an issue if a bad defense was taking the Iowa product to go kill the quarterback with aplomb. But as shown with Clowney’s short tenure in the Pacific Northwest, playing on the edge in Seattle is so much more than getting sacks. They blend their first two lines of defense so well that it hides weaknesses very effectively. Epenesa is a sure tackler and 22 sacks over the past two years didn’t happen by accident.
28. BALTIMORE- Patrick Queen, LB (LSU)
Baltimore has a strong lineage of linebackers that has kind of fallen by the wayside in recent seasons. My second shifted pick from the first round has them taking steps into changing that.
I originally had another LSU product in this spot but sadly the Tigers total will crash to “only” six in the first round. Queen was the leading tackler for the National Champions in the title game and is the more NFL-ready prospect compared to teammate K’Lavon Chaisson. However, his upside is viewed as lower than Chaisson’s which makes him fall to this spot. I don’t think if he was here for Baltimore though they’d complain in the slightest.
29. TENNESSEE- Yetur Gross-Matos, DE (Penn State)
The Titans made an improbable run to the AFC Championship last year and despite a couple of defections will bring back the majority of the offense that got them there. But if they are going to attempt to run it back they are going to have to improve defensively.
Tennessee is losing their second-leading sacker of the quarterback with the Jurell Casey trade to Denver. Yetur Gross-Matos is an athletic edge rusher who could feast on a division where he has four guaranteed games a year (at the moment) against sieve-like offensive lines (Houston, Jacksonville).
30. GREEN BAY- Cole Kmet, TE (Notre Dame)
It has been the case in recent seasons that every draft has that “Him?” moment in the first round. What better team than the Packers to provide that moment and fill a need in the same breath?
Jimmy Graham has left the Bay and in that has taken away a valuable safety valve for Aaron Rodgers. Realistically looking at projections you could get a tight end in the late-second to early-third round with no problem. I think that if a team is going to jump this early though it’s going to be for the Notre Dame tight end was there every time a first down was needed for Ian Book in 2019.
31. SAN FRANCISCO- Lloyd Cushenberry, C (LSU)
Having got their wide receiver with the pick they got from the Colts, the Niners need to address a gaping hole in their offensive line left by a brutal injury.
This one was a coin flip between Cushenberry and Michigan’s Cesar Ruiz for which center would be donning the San Francisco ensemble come the fall. Cushenberry was part of the offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award. That and tails never fails.
32. KANSAS CITY- Kenneth Murray, LB (Oklahoma)
The end of night one bolsters the champions with a player they could potentially plug into the starting lineup from day one.
Despite winning the Super Bowl and having two seasons to address such glaring defensive slights, the Chiefs are still woefully sitting on the low side of the teeter-totter defensively. Adding a dynamic linebacker like Murray, who very well could just as well come off the board in the 16-21 range, is a fucking no-brainer. The Chiefs have only had one first-round pick in the past four seasons, but that one turned out pretty good. They may very well trade out of the first round again, but if they stick with Murray and he is even 50% for the defense what Mahomes was for the offense Andy Reid will be dancing (horribly, but dancing nonetheless).
PLAYERS THAT COULD VERY WELL GO IN ROUND ONE BUT IF NOT WILL BE TREMENDOUS ROUND TWO PICKS
Xavier McKinney, S (Alabama) - A rangy safety that is just as comfortable tracking back on a burner as he is putting your quarterback in a coma.
Grant Delpit, S (LSU) - The unfortunate victim of mock reshuffling that could be a standout steal in the second round.
De’Andre Swift, RB (Georgia) - Should be the first RB off the board and might be off before the second round given Josh Jacobs’ success last season at the end of round one.
Jacob Eason, QB (Washington) - If a team is trading back into the first round they are coming up to get Eason.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR (Arizona State) - The Jaylon Johnson of wide receivers. He could very well hype himself over the likes of Denzel Mims, Tee Higgins, and Justin Jefferson.