NORTHWEST DIVISION
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (62-20; 1st)
2. Denver Nuggets (48-34; 6th)
3. Portland Trailblazers (44-38)
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (38-44)
5. Utah Jazz (19-63)
This is the year that Kevin Durant solidifies himself as an all-time great player. Durant will lead the league in scoring and post career highs in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. In other words he will put this team on his back while the everyone else waits for All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook to return. The rest of the starting lineup (Thabo Sefolosha, Serge Ibaka, & Kendrick Perkins) are great defenders and I think that mentality will add that dimension to KD's game. First round pick Steven Adams will make Perkins expendable in a couple years. Reggie Jackson will be running the show in place of Westbrook and will serve his side nobly. Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb are intriguing players but they are both still young. So mark it down, with every Thunder game you watch this year, you are witnessing Kevin Durant have a legendary season. Or he'll tear his ACL in November and make me look like a complete dunce. No middle ground!
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Russell Westbrook
SG Thabo Sefolosha
SF Kevin Durant
PF Serge Ibaka
C Kendrick Perkins
The Nuggets seem to be in limbo. They lost their head coach George Karl, Executive of the Year Masai Ujiri, and their best player in Andre Iguodala. They didn't add anybody to improve their shoddy defense. But you know what? I can't see this team not making the playoffs. Ty Lawson could be an All-Star. Randy Foye was brought in to replace Iguodala but he could be supplanted by young Frenchman Evan Fournier by the end of the year. Fournier showed in brief spells at the end of last season that he can deal with the Nuggets high tempo. A guy which I once drop kicked a telephone pole over, Danilo Gallinari, had developed into a dangerous shooter and scorer before his injury. Kenneth Faried and Javale McGee are nice guys and ferocious rebounders but are below average defenders. They may be a quick out come the postseason but at least they'll make it to the dance.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Ty Lawson
SG Randy Foye
SF Danilo Gallinari
PF Kenneth Faried
C Javale McGee
Rip City is a good team, but just not playoffs good this year. I have them at 44 wins, which in the East would garner them the 6th seed. Broken record time! The difficulty in the West allows another .500+ team to pick in the lottery come June. Portland has the reigning Rookie of the Year, Damian Lillard, running the point and I think he'll be even better in his sophomore campaign with rookie C.J. McCollum from Lehigh allowing him to get more rest. LaMarcus Aldridge can focus even more on offense as new GM Neil Olshey added Robin Lopez to the mix to clog the paint on defense. Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum round out the starting lineup with both elite defense and three point shooting respectively. Their weak bench got better with Thomas Robinson, Mo Williams, and second round pick Allen Crabbe. As with any team just on the outside of the playoff picture, they can make a move to break through but as they are currently constituted Portland is just the 9th best team out West.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Damian Lillard
SG Wesley Matthews
SF Nicolas Batum
PF LaMarcus Aldridge
C Robin Lopez
I wouldn't want to play the Timberwolves this year. If they were in the East they'd be a 5 or a 6 seed. In the West, I think they are still an under .500 team. Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio return from injury and make them one of the more exciting running teams going. Nikola Pekovic, and his new deal, is a stud down low and he will continue to improve. They finally jettisoned GM David Kahn and new head man Flip Saunders made an instant impact with Kevin Martin and Chase Budinger signings, perfect players for Rubio to drive and kick to. I hated their draft as I feel Shabazz Muhammad is a lazy troublemaker and Gorgui Dieng, though a good defender, shouldn't have been a first round pick. Minnesota has an underrated bench in Derrick Williams (who can play two positions above average), backup PGs J.J. Barea and Alexey Shved (who both filled in admirably for Rubio in stretchs), and Corey Brewer (a tireless defender). A couple breaks go their way and Minnesota may make the playoffs this year rather than next.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Ricky Rubio
SG Kevin Martin
SF Chase Budinger
PF Kevin Love
C Nikola Pekovic
The Jazz will be horrendous this year. Going forward though they could get back to their glory days sooner rather than later. Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter no longer have Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson in front of them. I think this will allow the two talented big men to be among the leading rebounders in the NBA. Trey Burke and Gordon Hayward make a dynamic backcourt duo as Burke is a top notch distributor and Hayward is an emerging force behind the arc. Their bench is miserable but the majority of those players including the two horrible contracts they got as part of the Andre Iguodala deal, Richard Jefferson & Andris Biedrins, may not make it through the season, never mind to next year. The same could be said for coach Tyrone Corbin who was widely criticized for underutilizing his young talent. Salt Lake City won't be home to sweet music in 2013-2014 but Jazz fans can take solace that it won't last much longer.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Trey Burke
SG Gordon Hayward
SF Marvin Williams
PF Derrick Favors
C Enes Kanter
PACIFIC DIVISION
1. Golden State Warriors (57-25; 3rd)
2. Los Angeles Clippers (56-26; 4th)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (41-41)
4. Sacramento Kings (30-52)
5. Phoenix Suns (17-65)
Filed next to Washington under teams I am high on this year is the Golden State Warriors. They have one of the best styles for a casual basketball fan to watch. They got better with Andre Iguodala. Mark Jackson allows Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to play to their strengths and Iguodala will get the same rope. David Lee can be an All-Star at power forward and Andrew Bogut is still a good center, when healthy of course. Harrison Barnes is my pick for Sixth Man of the Year coming off a solid playoff run. The only thing that can keep Golden State from taking that next step to being an elite team is if Stephen Curry gets hurt again. Jarrett Jack is gone and Toney Douglas and Steph's brother Seth are not adequate replacements. If Curry's ankle acts up they won't bottom out but they'll regress. The rest of the bench features Festus Ezeli and Jermaine O'Neal, statues in the middle, and players such as Kent Bazemore and Draymond Green who are still unproven.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Stephen Curry
SG Klay Thompson
SF Andre Iguodala
PF David Lee
C Andrew Bogut
Doc Rivers' arrival brings the end to the Lob City era at the Staples Center. Chris Paul is the best point guard in the league and in my opinion it isn't even close. There is not a better passer of the basketball today. J.J. Redick gives Paul a guy outside the arc to drive and kick to on the wings and in the corner. Matt Barnes brings grit and decent shooting to the lineup. Even with those three this team will only go as far their two big men will get them. That being said I don't see the Clip Show making a deep run because those two bigs, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, can't be on the floor late in games because they are both abysmal free throw shooters. Their bench stars Jamal Crawford, who is a spectacular sixth man who will see more minutes than any bench player in the NBA. Byron Mullens is a good addition to the second unit but can get too three-pointer happy at times, not a good trait for a seven footer. It won't be this year but if they can make some moves in the coming years the Clippers will have more than just murals of their players to cover the Lakers banners.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Chris Paul
SG J.J. Redick
SF Matt Barnes
PF Blake Griffin
C DeAndre Jordan
My predictions surrounding the Los Angeles Lakers are entirely predicated around Kobe Bryant coming back within the first month of the season. Kobe is one of the most determined players in NBA history but at his age and after his injury he may need more time to make it back. If that is the case, the Lakers go from a .500 team to a high lottery team. Steve Nash is a shell of his former self and Pau Gasol seems to already have one foot out the door. The rest of the team is a mish mash of poor shooters who shoot a ton and big men who don't play as such. They won't be able to stop anybody even with Kobe starting because Mike D'Antoni is still somehow the coach. So the real conundrum for Lakers faithful is do they endure a Kobe-less, putrid season to make it into the Wiggins sweepstakes or see their #24 put this "team" on his back one last time to drag them out of it?
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Steve Nash
SG Kobe Bryant
SF Wesley Johnson
PF Pau Gasol
C Chris Kaman
Kings fans had the best summer they could have hoped for. They had the joy of not losing their team to Seattle. The Maloofs sold the team after taking the powerhouse they helped build into a nose dive for the last decade. Potential #1 pick Ben McLemore slid to them at #7 in the draft. They didn't overpay Tyreke Evans and got an above average point guard on the cheap in Greivis Vasquez in return. They couldn't stop anybody last year so they brought in one good defender (now they have one!) in Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to help out. DeMarcus Cousins is the best scorer and rebounder on the team but is still a defensive liability and a headcase. Nobody on the bench will help the defensive cause of new coach and defensive specialist Mike Malone but Jimmer Fredette and Marcus Thornton can sure launch eight awful threes apiece per game! They won't contend this year but I want to see how this new ownership repays a city that fought tooth and nail to keep them in California's capital.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Greivis Vasquez
SG Ben McLemore
SF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
PF Jason Thompson
C DeMarcus Cousins
It is going to be a real bad year for the teams whose cities start with PH-. Similar to Philadelphia in the East, Phoenix will be at the bottom of the West. They have a roster whose stocked at guard. Too bad none of them are good shooters and they'll be starting two point guards in the backcourt in Goran Dragic and the newly acquired Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe showed flashes of brilliance in Chris Paul's place last season but being a starting two guard in the West is vastly different from being a backup point guard. They have two Morris twins vying for the power forward spot and a hot bag of journeyman aiming to be the starting 3. Their best player, center Marcin Gortat, will surely be moved at some point to make way for the fifth overall pick, Alex Len. I don't see sunny days in 2013-2014 for Phoenix and as long as Robert Sarver is owner new GM Ryan McDonough is going to have to turn Pintos into Lambos for Phoenix to return to prominence.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Goran Dragic
SG Eric Bledsoe
SF Gerald Green
PF Marcus Morris
C Marcin Gortat
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
1. Memphis Grizzlies (59-23; 2nd)
2. San Antonio Spurs (50-32; 5th)
3. Dallas Mavericks (48-34; 7th)
4. Houston Rockets (47-35; 8th)
5. New Orleans Pelicans (28-54)
The best defensive team in the league in my humble opinion, Memphis will parlay their trip to the Western Conference Finals last year, even though they were unceremoniously dumped out, into a division championship this year. Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are beasts down low on both the offensive and defensive end of the floor. The perimeter defense is rock solid with Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince though Mike Conley's is still suspect. Quincy Pondexter and Mike Miller provide outside shooting off the bench, a skill they desperately need to add more of. Jerryd Bayless showed in the playoffs that he can take on big minutes if asked. New coach (I've said those two words how many times?) David Joerger should get more out of big man Ed Davis than previous coach Lionel Hollins and offseason pickup Kosta Koufos will be able to spell Gasol and not give away too much. The thing with Memphis though is I feel they'll have a great regular season but come the playoffs they won't go as deep as they did in 2012-2013.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Mike Conley
SG Tony Allen
SF Tayshaun Prince
PF Zach Randolph
C Marc Gasol
They were so close. They were 28 seconds away from their fifth NBA Championship before the Heat snatched it from their clutches. They bring back the same starting lineup and practically the same bench with Marco Belinelli being the only notable addition. Does Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili have one last deep run in their old legs? Can Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, and Tiago Splitter pick up the slack when they can't? I don't foresee them getting out of the first round this year and one of those three calling it a career afterwards. A model of consistency for nearly 15 years these Spurs, these Spurs may have had their last rodeo but as long as Gregg Popovich is on the bench and R.C. Buford is drafting and making shrewd moves there will just be reshuffling at the Alamo not rebuilding.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Tony Parker
SG Danny Green
SF Kawhi Leonard
PF Tim Duncan
C Tiago Splitter
I feel that this is Dallas' last hurrah as a playoff team for a few years. I think Dirk Nowitzki returns to a sliver under his MVP form. If he is healthy, I know Dirk will get his team back to the postseason a season after they missed them with him on the shelf. He has help but it is flawed. Jose Calderon is an elite passer but can't defend. Monta Ellis is a volume shooter who can score but can't shoot (yes, that makes sense) but can't defend. Why can't these NBA teams at least put one decent defender in the starting lineup? Shawn Marion still has the funkiest shot in the NBA this side of Kevin Martin and is potential trade fodder even though he has slowed down substantially. Sam Dalembert can block shots but he has health issues. Vince Carter is a potential 6th man winner but there is a great deal of question marks for the rest of the bench including first round pick, baseball Hall of Famer Barry Larkin's son Shane. How do I have the Spurs AND this team ahead of the Rockets? Read below.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Jose Calderon
SG Monta Ellis
SF Shawn Marion
PF Dirk Nowitzki
C Samuel Dalembert
This is the team that I'll certainly catch the most heat for. The Rockets have the looks of the Finals contender. I think looks can be deceiving. Dwight Howard is an elite player on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. James Harden has the same credentials and the best beard going. That is where my praise for this team ends. Jeremy Lin is still unproven and always seems to be banged up. Backup center Omer Asik wants out. There are a lot of players without defined roles. Chandler Parsons is a good cheap player right now but I think he is over-relied upon and will crumble under the higher expectations of this team. I am not insane enough to not have this team in the playoffs. I even have them taking their first round series to seven games! The Rockets better hope that nothing goes wrong this year because one injury or one bad month and you'll have the same problem that Los Angeles had last year with Dwight Howard except you won't have the luxury of being able to trade him as easily.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Jeremy Lin
SG James Harden
SF Francisco Garcia
PF Chandler Parsons
C Dwight Howard
The former New Orleans Hornets, now rebranded the Pelicans, had a perplexing summer. They traded Nerlens Noel and a first round picks for Jrue Holiday on draft day and then let Greivis Vasquez so for a drastically less price. Tyreke Evans got overpaid to come in and do the same thing that Eric Gordon does. "The Brow" Anthony Davis was the #1 draft pick last year and needs to prove he was worthy of that distinction by being healthy and developing an offensive game commensurate to his defensive skills. Ryan Anderson has been an underrated player for a few years and he will continue to fire away from deep for coach Monty Williams. The bench is halfway decent with a center that can shoot in Jason Smith and a swing man that could start in Al-Farouq Aminu. Draft pick Jeff Withey and Greg Stiemsma do the same thing and NOLA should be counting the days until the end of the Austin Rivers era.
OPTIMAL STARTING LINEUP
PG Jrue Holiday
SG Eric Gordon
SF Tyreke Evans
PF Ryan Anderson
C Anthony Davis
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Trevor Utley is well aware of how much of an idiot he is. Please don't blow up his Twitter feed.
Image credits: All team logos (sportslogos.net); Western Conference Logo (Wikipedia); Bracket (printyourbrackets.com)